How to know if one will succeed or fail?

FROM MY FILE: know all the risks first

Photo by Pietro Mattia on Unsplash

I had the distinct pleasure of leading an excellence workshop last week for our university's MBA alumni and healthcare business leaders. The question I asked seemed simple - how can you tell if a given activity was a success or failure? I needed that to formulate a more demanding one - how to know if your planned actions are likely to succeed or fail? The discussion appeared very engaging and I want to share with you some observations.

Success or failure?

First of all, distinguishing between success and failure is not easy at all. The answer in many cases is “it all depends”. Was the Apollo 13 mission successful? Not really. The astronauts never made it to the lunar surface as planned. But they managed to come back safely to Earth. The mission was not completed but nobody died, and all learned something valuable. As a result, the Apollo 14 spacecraft was modified so Shepard and Mitchell made their lunar landing, while Roosa remained in lunar orbit aboard the Command and Service Module. So, judging if something is a success or failure needs to be considered in the broader context.

During Olympic Games in Rio in 2016, Shaunae Miller dove across the finish line in the women's 400 meters winning as the result the gold medal. Doing so she inspired my people with her determination. However, others asked a question if what she did was fair. The 400 meters race and other races are not about throwing yourself forward before the finish line. If such were the principles the rules would require that you throw yourself across the finish line let’s say 5 metres before at the latest. As it is not prohibited, Miller won the gold Olympic medal but for me, I will remember her style or rather the lack of it. That means it depends also on who you ask if something is a success or failure.

We could go through many such cases starting for example with the Concord disaster. Success or failure? 113 people died. The program was cancelled and supersonic passenger flights were suspended for many years. But look how the Concorde program influenced the industry over half a century!

Let me leave you with one of the most difficult questions of such a sort. Prof. Zbigniew Religa was a famous Polish cardiac surgeon who performed the first successful heart transplantation in Poland. A great success, indeed. But remember that three of his first heart transplantations failed. Patients died shortly after surgery. Moreover, each heart transplantation means that someone had to die so that someone could live. Ex morte vita.

Without any shadow of a doubt

The above examples were intended to show that the measure of success is not always obvious. Nevertheless, there are situations where the answer is simple. When I attend graduation ceremonies I have no doubt - this is a success for everybody involved - each student, his or her family, teachers, the university and even the national education system. When I observe the Artemis mission which will ultimately bring back mankind to the Moon, I know it is a spectacular success either. Finally, when I look at the history and heritage of the Mayo Clinic, I’ll tell you - this is a historical success of the people's spirit, motivation and devotion.

On the other side when I observe people's poverty, homelessness, learning poverty and lost opportunities, I know that states are failing. I can say the same about clean air policies or fighting global challenges like child mortality due to malaria. By contrast, in the business world, when for example I look closer at the slow progress and unclear future of the Boring Company, supposed to become one of those Elon Musk’s breakthrough investments in the development of city infrastructure, I hardly can imagine its rationale reaching behind a marketing vehicle for Tesla. I can miss imagination, it’s true, but allow me to stay with my assessment. Wrong business development strategies happen every day around the world.

This comparison above was intended to show that we can recognise a definite failure and a definite success. The problem is what lies in between.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN THAT THE RESULT WAS MODERATELY SATISFACTORY? ALL RIGHT, WE DID SOMETHING RIGHT BUT IT DID NOT WORK AS EXPECTED. WE IMPROVED SOMETHING ELSE BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREDICTED. WE HELPED MANY PEOPLE BUT EVEN MORE WERE LEFT BEHIND. WOULD IT BE CALLED A SUCCESS? IF YOU INTEND TO DO SOMETHING, SPEND YOUR PRECIOUS TIME AND SCARED RESOURCES, BETTER DO IT RIGHT. THAT IS WHAT I DO.

Now comes the most intriguing part. How shall I know that what I plan would be a success? You never can be a hundred per cent sure of it. But you can identify the risks, and even estimate their potential impact. And this is a mind-blowing experience.

So, will I succeed?

The answers to the questions about the future have fascinated people since the beginning of mankind. Let’s see how we can tell if one will succeed.